Risk Quantification Analysis

Purpose of risk quantification:

1. To get a numerical estimate f the overall effect of risk on the project objectives.
2. Performed on risks that have been prioritized as potentially and substantially impacting the project's competing demands.

Why PMs conduct risk quantification?

• To establish odds of achieving project goals
• To justify contingency reserves
• To validate time, cost, and scope targets
• To conduct in depth "what if" analyses

Quantitative Risk Analysis eg: Monte Carlo simulation, Decision tree analysis.

• Gives you - How likely is success?
• How much contingency?
• Which risks are high priority?

Tools and techniques used: 

1. Data gathering and representation techniques
1. Expert Interviews
2. Probability Distributions
2. Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Techniques
1. Modeling and Simulation
2. Sensitivity Analysis
3. Expected Monetary Value Analysis
3. Expert Judgement