Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Value Management


CONCEPT OF VALUE

The concept of value can be defined as the relationship between satisfying
an organization’s many conflicting needs and the resources required
to meet those needs.
Value can be added to projects in several ways. These include providing
greater levels of client satisfaction, maintaining acceptable levels of
satisfaction while lowering resource expenditures, or some combination of
the two. It is also possible to improve value by simultaneously increasing
satisfaction and resources, provided that satisfaction increases more than
the resources used to achieve it.
When managing projects for value, five fundamental concepts must be
embraced.


Concept #1: Projects derive their value from the benefits the organization
accrues by achieving its stated goals—Remember that projects are typically
initiated as a perceived solution to a goal, need, or opportunity.
Thus, when we want to determine the degree to which a project is being
managed for ‘‘value,’’ it is critical to first ensure that the project falls
in line with organizational goals. Projects that are being run counter to
a firm’s stated goals (e.g., customer satisfaction, commercial success, or
improving health and safety) already fail the first test of value.
Concept #2: Projects can be viewed as investments made by management
Any investment comes with an expected return for the risk undertaken, and projects are no exception. Because they consume
resources and time, they are expected to yield acceptable returns, based
on internal requirements, along with associated benefits.
Concept #3: Project investors and sponsors tolerate risk—There are
inherent risks in projects, because there is considerable uncertainty
surrounding their outcomes. These risks may be technical (‘‘Does the
technology that is driving the project work?’’), they may be commercial
(‘‘Will the project succeed in the marketplace?’’), they may involve health
and safety issues (‘‘Can we manage the project within appropriate safety
parameters?’’), or some combination of all of the above. Accepting these
risks is recognition that each project is a unique endeavor with unique
unknowns. Investors may not be able to manage these risks, but they
do tolerate them because the potential rewards may far outweigh the
negative impact.
Concept #4: Project value is related to investment and risks
This fourth concept defines project value as a function of the resources
committed (investment made) and the extent of risks taken. Goodpasture
puts it this way: ‘‘The traditional investment equation of ‘total return
equals principal plus gain’ is transformed into the project equation of
‘project value is delivered from resources committed and risks taken.’’’3
Using these terms, we can see that value will always walk a narrow
line between expected return on investment and risk. When the equation
gets out of balance; that is, when the perceptions of the organization are
that the expected return cannot make up for excessive levels of risk, the
project ceases to produce value. The implication of this concept is that different
projects require different levels of investment with varying levels
of risk. Consequently, the value delivered by each of these projects will
also vary.

Concept #5: Value is a balance among the three key project elements:
performance, resource usage, and risk—Again, if we employ a ‘‘ledger’’
mindset, we can add up the credit column to include drawbacks such
as expenditure (resource usage) and risk accepted. Balanced against
these ‘‘negatives’’ is the company’s expectation of project performance
and positive outcomes. Naturally, the higher the expected performance of
the project, the greater the resource usage and risk a company is willing
to commit.

For most project organizations, the objective measure of value is in
monetary terms. This is because projects consume time, and the longer
it takes to complete the project, the less valuable the money spent.
Therefore, when evaluating a project’s value, the concept of the time
value of money should be taken into account. In addition, monetary
measures allow project managers to acknowledge the future uncertainty
of outcomes by evaluating the financial impact of risk events.
The measures of net present value (NPV), economic value add, and
expected monetary value (EMV) take both of these factors into account.
Net present value, is significant in
that successful projects have a positive NPV over their life cycle. Both
NPV and economic value add employ the discounted cash flow concept;
however, economic value add is a financial measure of project performance
after the project becomes operational. It is defined as the difference between the present value of after-tax earnings from the project and the
benefits from the next-best investment alternative. The logic underlying
economic value add is that if the projected after-tax earnings are less than
the cost of the capital the project consumes, then some other, less-risky
investment alternative may be more attractive. Expected monetary value is also the most appropriate financial measure
when measuring future uncertainty, or when multiple project
outcomes are possible, each with a different cost and schedule. It is
defined as the summation of the value of each outcome in dollars ($),
weighted by the probability of that outcome. For example, consider a
project that needs to be redesigned, and assume that the new approach
involves some risk to accomplish this goal. One possible monetary outcome
is $200,000 with a 40 percent probability of achieving this outcome,
while anothermonetary outcome is $150,000 with a 60 percent probability
of occurrence. The EMV of this project is
EMV = $200,00 0.4 + $150,000 0.6 = $170,000
If the NPV for this project is also positive, and if all other considerations
are equal, it is worth taking the risk of adopting the new approach to
redesign this project.

Key Principles of VM
The value management approach hinges on three key principles4:
1. An unending quest for enhancing value for the organization, establishing
metrics or estimates of value, and monitoring and controlling
them
2. A focus on clear definition of objectives and identification of targets
before seeking solutions
3. A focus on function, pivotal to maximizing those outcomes that are
innovative, meaningful, and practical

THE VM PROCESS
The detailed VM process and the typical terms used at different stages
of a project are illustrated in the Figure 8.3. Because the elements of
the figure are straightforward, we will focus our discussion of the process
from a strategic perspective. The elements of value management can be
grouped into five major categories:14
Needs assessment—This phase is concerned with arriving at a shared
understanding of the needs of various project stakeholders, the critical
success factors with the expected benefits defined qualitatively,
and the key performance indicators of time, cost, quality, or functionality,
defined through quantitative measures.
Idea generation—In this phase, the cross-functional team focuses
on generating creative and innovative alternatives to complete the
project.
Detailed evaluation—During this phase, the alternatives generated
in the previous phase are evaluated in detail in terms of their feasibility,
achievability, and potential contribution to expected project
benefits. At this stage, modifying alternatives to develop additional
options is also considered.
Optimum choice—This phase prioritizes the various alternatives and
selects the best alternative.
Feedback and control—This phase is the formal evaluation and
control process with feedback loops to improve the overallVMprocess.
During this phase, VM practitioners and users must obtain feedback
on its performance to ascertain whether the expected improvement
in value was realized, and to generate other good ideas that can be
adopted and implemented. During the feedback process, factors to
be assessed include the stakeholders’ judgment, involvement, and
support; the system’s appropriateness, use, and effectiveness; and
change management. Actions that can emerge from the feedback
stage include changes to personnel, approach, or the system, and
even repeating the VM exercise as a whole.

The process of financial management


Project finance involves two main types of contracts: concession agreements
with the government, and off-take contracts with consumers.

The process of financial management involves five major steps:
1.      Conducting feasibility studies,
2.      planning project finance,
3.      arranging the financial package,
4.      controlling the financial package,
5.      and managing financial risk.
Conducting Feasibility Studies

Project alternatives are evaluated using financial appraisal techniques such as net present value analysis (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR).
During this step, the financial objectives of the project are established.
While these objectives differ between various project stakeholders, the
main concerns of the project sponsor are:
Raising necessary funds for the project at appropriate times, and in
appropriate currencies
Minimizing project cost and maximizing revenue
Appropriate risk-sharing among all project stakeholders, including
financiers
Establishing adequate control and flexibility, including rescheduling
loan and interest repayments if conditions warrant
The ability to pay dividends to equity holders
Controlling Financial Risk
The various types of financial risks that can be encountered in a project
are provided in Table


0

Monday, July 15, 2013

PRINCIPLES OF FINANCING PROJECTS


TYPES AND SOURCES OF FINANCE
There are two main types of financing: equity and debt. Equity financing
refers to the money subscribed by investors and shareholders, whose
returns on investment are in the form of dividends and capital growth
equivalent to the value of their equity in the project organization. However,
the project organization can make dividend disbursements only
after the interest and scheduled loan repayment obligations have been
met. If the project is successful, the returns on investment for equity
holders can be substantial; if it fails, equity providers may receive no
returns. Consequently, equity holders may demand higher returns than
other debtors.
Debt financing refers to money borrowed from a number of sources,
including banks. This debt involves periodic repayments of the debt and
interest, based on agreed-upon schedules. The money borrowed through
this type of financing arrangement has to be repaid first, before the
repayment of other types of finances. This type of debt is also sometimes
known as senior debt.

Mezzanine debt -  Another type of debt financing involves loans from the project organization’s
equity holders. This type of debt, called Mezzanine debt, involves
a schedule of loan repayments and interest payments at a predetermined
rate. Mezzanine debt, however, is considered secondary to the senior debt
discussed earlier, and all loan and interest repayments on mezzanine,
debt can be made only after financial obligations to the lenders of the
senior debt have been fulfilled. Consequently, mezzanine debt involves
higher risk and correspondingly higher interest rates.

SOURCES OF FINANCE
There are both conventional and unconventional sources of finance. The
conventional sources include the company’s shareholders, banks, suppliers,
export credit, buyer and seller credit, and international investment
institutions such as World Bank and development banks such as the
Asian Development Bank. Unconventional sources of finance include
leasing assets, counter trade, forfeiting, switch trade, and debt/equity
swapping.
Leasing assets—rather than purchasing a project asset, the project
organization leases it from a third party, who receives a return in
the form of rental for the asset.
Counter trade—The seller accepts goods or services in lieu of cash.
For example, it is quite common in poorly developed or third world
countries to ‘‘pay’’ for a portion of a large project with commodities,
which the project developer then must sell in order to raise cash.
Forfeiting—finance is made available through the sale of financial
instruments due to mature at some time in the future. Finance is
then provided by trading in these assets in the futures market.
Switch trade—This process makes use of a credit surplus between
two parties to finance a relationship with a third party. For example,
if country A has a credit surplus with country B, exports from C to A
can be financed with payments from B to C.
Debt/equity swapping—A multinational company may buy a host
country’s debt at a discount. This is redeemed in local currency
at favorable exchange rates and is used to set up local companies.
These are used by the multinational company to transfer technology,
generate foreign exchange, and create employment in the host
country.
COST OF FINANCING
The cost associated with borrowing money depends on the particular form
of capital borrowed. For example,
The cost of equity is the dividends paid to shareholders plus any
estimate of the equity’s capital growth. The cost of equity is usually
calculated using the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). (More can
be learned about this model in any finance textbook.)
The cost of debt is the cost of debt financing, or the interest paid
on the money borrowed. While the cost of equity is payable out of
untaxed income, the cost of debt is payable out of taxed income.
The cost of capital is the average cost of various forms of finance
used by the project organization; specifically, it is the weighted average
of the cost of the different types of capital borrowed. For example,
if the project is financed through both debt and equity, then
Cost of capital = Ratio of equity Cost of equity
+ Ratio of debt Cost of debt

PROJECT FINANCE
Project finance refers to unsecured, nonrecourse,
off-balance sheet financing of an individual project.

Project finance involves two main types of contracts: concession agreements
with the government, and off-take contracts with consumers.


PAYMENT ARRANGEMENTS


Cost-reimbursable Arrangements
A cost-reimbursable arrangement is often the simplest form of contract,
particularly if the work is ill defined at the outset. This is also called
the ‘‘cost-plus-fee’’ or ‘‘cost-plus’’ contract. It is sometimes referred to as
a ‘‘limit-of-liability’’ contract, because it is normal for the sponsor to set
limits on the amount of funds that he or she is willing to allocate.
Cost-reimbursable Arrangements fixed-price (lump sum) – contractors can bill monthly. If the project is revised, the budget may be revised as well.
stage payment -  in this arrangement, the project
is divided into a series of blocks of work, or ‘‘stages,’’ each with a budget
attached. Usually, Unlike milestones, which are discrete events that occur in sequence, it
is possible for work on several stages to be performed concurrently. If the
stages are relatively large, billing can be done monthly up to some fixed
percentage, as is done in the milestone plan, Beyond that point, billing
is not allowed until the agreed-upon stage is completed.



Claims and Variations
It is the rare project that is completed without changes. Not only are
changes expected, but they are also taken into account by most contracts.
In extreme cases, sponsors have attempted to employ ‘‘all-risk, ceiling
price’’ contracts, which state quite clearly that whatever may transpire on
the project, the contractor is expected to complete the work and the sponsor
will not pay any more than the agreed-upon ceiling price. With more normal contractual arrangements, the cost of work over and above that covered in the contract can normally be recovered in two ways:
claims and variations. A claim is generally a retrospective demand for compensation for costs
properly incurred. Claims can be made whenever additional expenditure
has been incurred for labor or expenses that are not in the agreed-upon
scope of work.

Cost Variation Due to Inflation and Exchange
Rate Fluctuation
Methods to counter currency exchange rate movements include
forward-buying the currency at a fixed exchange rate, and agreements to revalue the contract work at fixed times in the future, based on the prevalent exchange rates at those times.

Price Incentives
Occasionally, situations arise where there is a possibility that cost savings
can be made during the course of the project. This can happen when
uncertainties are so great that it is impossible to agree to a fixed-price
contract without including excessive contingencies. Sponsors naturally
want to avoid this option, and may instead propose a contract that
includes an inducement for the contractor to finish the project at a price
lower than the fixed amount. This inducement is in the form of increased
profit, even though the total contract value may be less, and means
that the customer is sharing a proportion of the cost savings with the
contractor. Inducements can be in the form of a price adjustment formula
that relates to the final profit, or a bonus payable if agreed-upon cost
thresholds are met. Bonuses can also be paid for early completion.
It is normal to fix, at the outset, both the maximum price (the ceiling
price) and the assumed minimum level of profit. Below the ceiling price,
a lower figure is agreed upon as the target price, which contains a
higher level of profits that the contractor feels he or she should be able to
achieve. As the contract proceeds, claims are made in stages, according to
a payment plan and observed progress. Profit at the low level can also be
included in these claims. At the end of the contract, a formula is applied
to the value of the claims, and if the total value is below the ceiling price
an additional payment is made.

Retentions
Despite the fact that work may appear to be completed satisfactorily, there
may be reasons to withhold an amount of money until final settlement
is made with the contractor. This practice is called retention. Usually,
retentions are used to ensure that if any defects are discovered in the
project work, the contractor will properly rectify them.